No photo available

20 views - 2 weeks ago

Correct prediction of PH -9.5% GDP for 2020

SIX of the 30 institutions polled by the Department of Finance (DOF) correctly predicted the contraction of the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) by 9.5 percent in the pandemichit year of 2020.

DOF Undersecretary Gil Beltran who is concurrently the agency’s Chief Economist said that of these 30 forecasts, 10 were a little more pessimistic, with GDP estimates ranging from -9.6 percent to -10.6 percent.

The remaining 14 were less gloomy in their outlook with GDP projections of -7.1 percent to -9.1 percent for 2020.

“During these trying times, however, a pessimistic forecaster, no matter how confident he might be in his outlook, would hope that he be proven wrong. For if he were to be eventually proven correct in his gloomy assessment, that would spell more economic suffering. In a sense, such correct reading of the tea leaves would give no pleasure to the forecaster,” Beltran said in his memorandum to Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III on the forecasting done on the Philippine economy in 2020.

The institutions in the list collated by the DOF include academic institutions, financial services firms, credit raters, economic consultancy and research firms, banks, and multilateral lenders.

Beltran said those who came out with a less bleak outlook on the country’s GDP had unwittingly turned the table “against the economy and, by implication, the government,” because a “less pessimistic outlook that has been proven wrong implies that government has not done enough as regards risk management and economic revival.”

“Moving forward, there are projections of a rebound in 2021. We should live up to those expectations,” Beltran said.

Beltran said those who made the correct forecast of the economy shrinking by 9.5 percent last year were S&P Global Ratings, DBS Bank, Capital Economics, Global Source Partners, Institute of International Finance (IIF) and Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC).