Supporters of Davao
City Mayor Inday Sara Duterte-Carpio expressed glee as
their candidate have been
topping surveys for presidentiables the past months
until recently. Some even
venture to claim that the
May 2022 elections would
just confirm what has been
decided by the surveys.
Funny, but surveys are supposed to give
us a mere snapshot of the standings now. But the winner on May 9, 2022, will be
the next president.
Months before the filing of
certificates of candidacies in 2015, Vice President Jojo Binay topped the
surveys. But on May 9, 2016, we know the winner was President Rodrigo Roa
Surveys do not determine who the winner
will be. Again, it just shows a snapshot of who is most popular at a given
But then, topping surveys would be
important during the campaign. The topnotcher would get the attention of
possible big funders. Being number one would also make an impression on a large
swath of the electorate. It is a crucial propaganda point.
Being a consistent topnotcher would be
something supporters would crow about.
However, in an electoral campaign,
there is also such a thing as peaking early and peaking just at the right time.
Presidentiable Duterte peaked just at
the right time in 2016. He gained the momentum and the turning point happened
in Cebu. Local politicians began to shift support in his favor.
A huge faction of the political
machinery of Mayor Tomas Osmeña mobilized the “Let’s DO (Duterte-Osmeña) It”
campaign. The next day. The political machinery of gubernatorial candidate
Winston Garcia shifted from Jojo Binay to Duterte.
Again, it would be premature to expect
the survey topnotcher now as the sure winner.