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Topping surveys

Supporters of Davao City Mayor Inday Sara Duterte-Carpio expressed glee as their candidate have been topping surveys for presidentiables the past months until recently. Some even venture to claim that the May 2022 elections would just confirm what has been decided by the surveys.

Funny, but surveys are supposed to give us a mere snapshot of the standings now. But the winner on May 9, 2022, will be the next president.

Months before the filing of certificates of candidacies in 2015, Vice President Jojo Binay topped the surveys. But on May 9, 2016, we know the winner was President Rodrigo Roa Duterte.

Surveys do not determine who the winner will be. Again, it just shows a snapshot of who is most popular at a given time.

But then, topping surveys would be important during the campaign. The topnotcher would get the attention of possible big funders. Being number one would also make an impression on a large swath of the electorate. It is a crucial propaganda point.

Being a consistent topnotcher would be something supporters would crow about.

However, in an electoral campaign, there is also such a thing as peaking early and peaking just at the right time.

Presidentiable Duterte peaked just at the right time in 2016. He gained the momentum and the turning point happened in Cebu. Local politicians began to shift support in his favor.

A huge faction of the political machinery of Mayor Tomas Osmeña mobilized the “Let’s DO (Duterte-Osmeña) It” campaign. The next day. The political machinery of gubernatorial candidate Winston Garcia shifted from Jojo Binay to Duterte.

Again, it would be premature to expect the survey topnotcher now as the sure winner.